not much

I don't feel like posting much tonight, although I did began writing a candlestick reversal pattern article today. In the trading world, my stubbornness has gotten me in trouble; I'm down quite a bit on a trade that I have yet to close. Stubbornness is something that I definitely need to work on.

I did make my own resolutions chart, as the Happiness Project suggests. All six of the goals are nothing too complicated--I just want to be able to do each one every day for at least 30 days. Two focus on physical well-being. Two focus on relationships. And the last two focus on trading.

The "W" Formation

This is the first pattern that I ever learned. It signals bullish action. What you're looking for is one candlestick that looks almost like a cross (these are called "doji"). If the stochastic is low, the RSI isn't too low (not less than 30) and volume (in the chart here there's no volume because volume doesn't function the same way in the forex market) is high, then you're on your way to forming a "W". What you want to look for next is a burst of strength to the upside; this will form your center point. Eventually you will use this as a confirmation. And you will need Surety Bonds. Watch for another pullback creating a higher low point. This candlestick will likely be shorter than the previous base, although this too could be a doji. Look for the stochastic to be oversold again, but not quite as low as before. As the chart shifts off the low look for an increase in the RSI that surpasses the previous reading. It's good if this continues going up--the stronger the better, until somewhat over 70 (then the chart may be getting top heavy). In any case, the "W" formation is confirmed as long as the RSI continues upward and the candlesticks pass the mid-point in the "W". In my experience, it tends to be a reliable indicator. Again, the more volume on the two bases and the stronger the RSI the better.

PS: My links are nearly all cleaned up and the post labeling is done on all back posts! Something to be proud of =) I am developing my own resolutions chart (a la Happiness-Project) and have come up with several ideas to improve the blog. More later.

Site Crap, Ideas

I really need to research and understand rollovers in the forex market. I got raped by one today because I was short EUR/USD around 4:00PST. The position wasn't awful when I left, but when I got back my P/L was up quite a bit. But the price hadn't moved much at all. I got hurt by the rollover. I'll put it all into an article and explain how you can use it to your advantage, basically setting up your own carry trade. But, doing the opposite of the carry trade will get you hurt.

On a different note, I have been clearing out my offsite link section. I decided to make it a little more like a community, linking people who link me, comment here and who I talk with on twitter. I'm sure you can find links to The Big Picture and Abnormal Returns elsewhere, and I'd be surprised if you found my site without stumbling across those earlier. There's no real reason to have them on the sidebar. Another thing that bothered me was that I only get so many hits. I figure I might as well give those who contribute and support me better odds at getting more traffic for themselves.

Another thing that I have put off too long is labels. So I have been working on adding labels to my old content.

Basically, I am trying to spruce things up a little, change things around to make the site more helpful and useful. I have quite a few ideas for articles that I'd like to put together--seems like the articles generate the most interest and attention. I also want to develop some other novel content ideas. Maybe a historic chart of the week, a random trading fact, a weekly economic quote/excerpt with commentary, or an interview of some of you traders out there; something of that sort. I enjoy the writing and, now that I have near-daily postings down, I would like to cultivate and nurture the content somewhat. Any ideas are welcomed.

200th Post

I updated the site a bit for its 200th post birthday. The layout is definitely improving ever since I embraced the ideation of sexing things up.

What I really wanted to say was that I appreciate everyone's support, all the comments I have received, the suggestions, the tips, all of your sites, the visits to my sponsors, the camaraderie and so much more. I can't believe I have come this far. For all of you thinking about making your own blog: it isn't easy--but, it is worth it.

Here's to a good 2009 and another 200 posts.

Some Updates

Been updating the page to make it somewhat more professional. Added an about, contact, FAQ, and disclaimer page which will be linked to from the righthand side. Also, I have added a "delicious" bookmark app to the right-most sidebar, underneath the google ads. I'll add what I am reading at the moment over there.

More updates shortly.

Stumbling Around

I'm still here. Been somewhat bummed by the rally (I should've listened to myself; I posted some comments in my COST puts post). It may not hold, but I definitely would not be surprised to see it do so. Quantifiable Edges has a post on how 1st weeks after a terrible year tend to do well.

I have some charts on my other computer that I will post and comment on later. For the moment, I thought I would post this lovely picture. Ever since Dinosaur Trader brought StumbleUpon to my attention, I have been completely addicted. It offers much better content than any social internet program or site I have seen. I used it back in 05 or so, and it has definitely improved--not that this picture represents its best content =).

Construction: Working on Design

Hope the new design is a little easier on everyone's eyes. It isn't complete but I am hacking away at it piece by piece (I'm not familar with blogspot's code; I know enough HTML to work through it, though). The goal is that it will develop into something that doesn't look half bad.

Here's to goals.

Link Additions Over the Last Week

I have added several blogs to the link list over the past week or so. Stock Rookie (Charlie G.) is a rookie like me. From what I have read, he does mostly paper trading at the moment, but even so, some of his picks appear very good. For instance, his newest post mentions EGT (Elixir Gaming Technologies). Yesterday I was doing some stock screening on FinViz. I searched for stock with high relative strength, and looked for charts with an increase in volume over the last few days. EGT looked to be a very good pick.

I also added Slope of Hope. I have been reading this site on and off for quite a while. Why I had not put it on the sidebar, I don't know. Same goes for xTrends. Check the most recent post--amazing. And not only that, but the comment section is a veritable goldmine. Through Slope of Hope, I found Action Points, which looks promising. I have not read much of it yet, but from what I have read so far, Action Points looks like an extensive resource.

I have added Pursuing Wealth as well. A site dedicated to learning the market and prospering from such knowledge. Another interesting extensive blog, Quantifiable Edges aims to provide an empiracle approach towards trading. The historical information is a boon to any trader looking for another method to gain an edge in this market. Last, but definitely not least, I have added The Market Kid. His focus appears to be on stocks below ten dollars (at least for the most part). I am amazed at his returns and his picks.

Check them all out.

If you have any recommendation, feel free to post them below. I love perusing the internet, especially economic/trading blogs.

On Pushing Forward

I don't know how many of you who read this run blogs of your own. I have a great respect for those of you who do. The amount of time that goes into creating content for a website, and the amount of effort required feels immense. At least to me. Pushing forward even when results fail to impress is pertinent. Without being able to pick yourself up after a fall, who is going to save you from lying in the dirt?

Today could have been a good day on the options front, but I decided, in a drowsy state, to sleep in. I slept until 7:00. My alarm, which I had set for 6:00 (PST), continued to bleep. By 7:00 AZO had risen from a low of 123.5 back on up to the ~128 level. I felt somewhat disappointed.

I should have known that any sort of gap down would become filled by the end of the day. I won't be too hard on myself, because I did limit my losses by risking a fraction of my account; but, I should have made a greater effort to protect myself, even if that meant forcing myself up or getting to sleep early.

Something good did come from it. I learned that my ability to choose stocks has improved. While there were plenty of other good, and some better, choices out there, I succeeded in picking a stock that did drop. And it dropped enough to increase the value of my puts some 10+%.

In tandem with developing new technical trading techniques, I am working on successful mental strategies for achieving success in trading. I realize that I need to let go of loses and take what I can get. I had a chance later in the day to pick up a 5%+ gain, but held on stubbornly. I have gotten better on letting go, albeit I have not hit the levels I would like.

This brings me back to blogging. I feel that my maintance of the site has improved somewhat. Along side my understanding of stocks and the economy, I would say reasonbly well. But I am definitely nowhere near where I would like to be. The gap is large and difficult to bridge--which, I think, is the point of this post: Don't give up. Keep pushing foward. In time, and with effort, you will be able to see a better tomorrow.

Changing it up

Trying to make the layout look a little different....

2002, here we come!

I feel like I should post something more than, "Up 5.3% on the DELL strangle;" but, that's all I have. I might post something else if I get through this book I have to read for class (or if I procrastinate and find myself reading interesting crap on the web). Anyway, check out some of the links to the bottom right. I have been adding to them every time I come across a site that I like. None of them are crap, I guarantee it.


Yeah, the video above borders on terrible. But it was most necessary. (There was another video called Party Like it's 1929, but the guy who made it was just a little too egocentric and nauseating for a link here.)

And here's the Motley Fool's take on the 25 years it took the DJIA to recoup the losses it sustained during the 1929 crash. All I can say is, hope you didn't need that money for anything in the next 5 years; and!, I hope you don't plan to make any interest on it for the next 5 years either.

So much for the whole 8% (or 10%+) return rate that seems to be factored into so many pension/retirement plans. Click here, for instance.

Look at them apples...

We've surpassed 1929 in terms of first year corrections. CHEERS!...

Thanks to The Housing Time Bomb for the chart (and much, much more on his home page).

A little stressed

This week has been stressful for many reasons unrelated to the stock market. Not sure when the stress will ease, but I hope to start posting again very soon. I even have a short guide that I have written up in my time between school and work.

I took a little time to play the fantasy markets on Friday (some of the shares were purchased on Wednesday or Thursday, but only a fraction). Notice the registration date. Yes, that 10.8+% gain took place over the course of a few days (and I didn't even purchase anything in this portfolio account on the first day because I registered after market hours).





In any case, the BPI is rebounding; we've had our first positive week in a long time; and, many hardcore investors are contemplating long positions--while, I say go with whatever works.

As always, be careful and take care.

Damn...

This is a day trader's market. I got out of most of my positions at the open, and I'm currently out of everything. This is a clusterfuck...

In any case, I'd like to thank Dinosaur Trader and The Impatient Trader for adding me to their blog rolls.

Student: "Worried about age?" McCain: "Nope, you little jerk."

I love YouTube.

Update on the day trading situation: My brother has said he will put $6,000 in my brokerage account if I can get the rest of the 25k from elsewhere.

Unstable

Up a negligible amount. Let's see what congress has in mind.

Good trading. Have a good weekend.

Update: I guess I was actually up 2.33% at the close. Google finance's numbers don't all match up to sogo's and stock charts'.

Small update

Been working on my technical analysis skills while taking the bus; unfortunately, that mode of transportation is taking its toll on me. I arrive home and fall asleep. Zecco has yet to transfer my funds into my banking account, albeit my equity transactions are all taken care of. It makes me a little irritated because there are many opportunities I would like to participate in. Oh well. In time. Anyway, I added some new technical links to the side, charts and indicators that I use on a regular basis. And I plan on adding some more blog links as I read through all of the sites I have gathered in my bookmarks.

Good trading.

Intc, aapl, and the wait

Intc is still in play as it didn't break above the stop I recommended yesterday--23.40. However, I should have paid closer attention to support and resistance levels. Support seems to be around 23, and I like to follow the stock a little closer throughout the day when support or resistance is so near. Take profits before they are taken from you. I haven't quite worked out exactly how I want to approach the close of a trade (or for that matter, the opening), but I definitely don't want to be too lenient. The distance between 23 and 23.40 is nearly 2% and isn't worth losing. As the stock gets closer and closer to support or resistance, and is showing slowing momentum, you should feel free to hold a closer stop and even consider mentally closing out the trade. Think of any further progress in your direction as a different trade, and add should the current level break in your favor.

Apple proved to be stronger than hoped, although it may prove to be an opportunity to enter long. I am not sure yet, but the recommended stop at 176 was hit today. That trade garnered 2.2%.

I am still waiting on the transfer of my funds from my current broker to my bank. And I will have to wait on that before I can commence trading. However, I am working out some new enter/exit strategies in the meantime. I am also formulating a practical beginners guide to trading.

In any case, good trading to all of you.

PS: Shorting SPY at ~129 looks good to me. A stop at 130.3 or so should be more than enough wiggle-room.

Remember your stop losses

This last investment in GS reaffirmed my rule for stop losses. They are a must. The way I play the game makes them a must. I don't want to be sitting around waiting for my stock to rise to break even so that I can have my money back; or risk that not happening within the month (or at all). It locks up my funds. I'd much rather cut my losses early, realize that I made a mistake, and reassess my position. Also, I do not want to take my profits too early. I've done this recently: taking my profit when a stop loss would have protected me as well as increased my gains. My intc and apple exercise is another example of the importance of the stop loss. If I didn't use one I would probably have gotten out of Apple yesterday, missing out on the drop today. I'd move the stop down to ~176. INTC has been a little easier to follow, but I still may have been tempted to take profits today. I'd move the stop loss down to 23.40. Maintaining stop losses prevents premature covers and excessive losses. (INTC = 6.1%; AAPL = 2.2%)

As for how close to put the stop loss, I find a lot of people make it rather subjective. Personally, I like something around 1% when I start, although I'd really like to tighten that up. The reason I go with 1% is because if I can't buy in or short without setting off a 1% stop, I feel that I wasn't accurate enough with my technical analysis. I tend to buy in or short near support/resistance levels, MAs, when stochastics are turning and volume is increasing or decreasing. I really shouldn't be losing more than 1% on a trade if I read the chart and calculated its pros and cons correctly.

Once I switch to sogo, my stop loss techniques may change. With the ability to make a trade for $1.50 there is little reason to worry about commissions taking an unhealthy portion of my account. If I want to test the waters, so to say, I could even put a smaller amount of money into a stock and add as it moves in my direction or allow the stock to go against me further than 1% (my losses wouldn't be as great because the amount invested was smaller). I'd also like to invest in several stocks at once; maybe, strive to divide my account among four stocks all with a certain percentage on the stop loss. I can cut losses and focus on the successful trades, averaging out the gains and losses, the later which would be significantly less than the former (for the most part, at least). With the lower commission price, all of this will be possible for me. My account is not large enough to justify losing $4.50 ($9 both ways) trades. I'd have to make $900 for the commission to be 1% of my trade; $90 for the commission to be 10% of the trade. (And all trades are not winning; as has been made apparent from my posts). With sogo, a $300 gain would allow the commission to be 1%, and a $30 trade, 10%. Much, much better.

Which is the reason why I am in the middle of moving my account. I have to allow several days (three or so) until all of my equity trades are cleared; another three days or so to transfer my money to my bank, and another few days to send the money to sogo. It should ultimately be worth it. This will definitely make it feasible for me to achieve a 1% overall weekly gain, and reasonable for me to set a goal somewhat higher. I'm thinking that after I can prove to myself that I can maintain an average of 1% over a two month period, I can push for a 1.5% or 2% average weekly gain. With my smallish account, that shouldn't be extraordinary of a goal. But, as with everything, we'll see.

Further notes: I'd continue to hold off on the NVDA trade. If it can break through the 50 day and hold, it should be a good position to have. If it can't (and it hasn't) I'd wait patiently. It has potential, but don't rush it.

Update: If Apple can't break 171 tomorrow, I'd strongly consider moving the stop even lower, perhaps even taking profits around 1-2 above the low of today (i.e. 173 or lower). Then again, I tend to have a bullish bias towards Apple. It tends to feel strong to me, despite its oscillations.

Switching brokers

I need to switch brokers so that my commissions aren't so high. I'm thinking about sogotrade; but, I'm dreading the amount of time it is going to take to get my money from my zecco account, into the bank, and then into sogo.