Friday, April 3, 2009


Sorry to keep the page blocked for so long. I'm reopening the content but not the site. Thank you to everyone who visited while I was open: a lot of you have helped me grow.

If you want to visit another trading site, check out riding the noise. Also, every site to the right has enough good information to keep you occupied for weeks (if not months).

Thank you and take care,


Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Side Project

Two people wanted a newsletter or newsletter-like service. Even though that is a relatively small number, I’m going to give it a shot.

If you would like to join, for $1 you will be given access to view CP's Letters from Wednesday until Saturday (March 17th – March 21st). Also, you can view next week from Sunday until Saturday (March 22nd – March 28th) for $2.50 more. If you want to see all of the posts and information up until March 28th, you can subscribe for a total of $3, a savings of $.50 (that would otherwise probably go to paypal; hence the encouragement to purchase all $3 worth at once).

What you receive:

- Morning “Coffee” Talk: By 9:00 AM EST, I will post some notes. I’ll talk about market developments, what I see as likely scenarios, economic news items to be aware of (numbers, businesses, government), and an S&P 500 chart (might be SPY or the ES emini, but they’re largely interchangeable).

- My real-time trades: I buy and sell stocks and futures.

- Technical analysis of stocks you choose (probably not more than 10 charts a day max, but it depends on what you desire).

- Technical analysis of intraday ES (S&P 500 emini) charts. Largely 5, 10 (sometimes), and 15 minute charts. This will be updated throughout the day.

- Intraday charts of several stocks I am following (plus one to three outside suggestions).

- Chat box (a la jabify) to ask questions in real-time.

- An analysis of the close.

This week and next week are preliminary weeks. I do not know how long I will run this side site, but I wanted to give it a try, especially with a break from school next week and limited stress (I have A’s!) this week.

If at any time you want a refund, let me know. No explanations are required. I’ll just tell paypal to put the money back in your account right away.

If you would like to see something else on the site, let me know.

Suggestions, Questions?


Monday, March 16, 2009

A Check Up

I think it is partially luck, a bit of excess caution, growing confidence, psychological development, and some nice charts, but I haven't had a losing trade since I tried to trade the after hours emini market several weeks ago (I wasn't used to the speed and the limited liquidity). All trades since then have been winners with the exception of one break even trade in the futures market. I don't mean to brag, I just want to say that it is possible. Enough of the horn tooting (watch me screw up tomorrow's trades =D)

On to some charts (all continuations of yesterday's postings):

Look at that beautiful shooting star, the turning stochastic, the decent volume, the RSI bouncing off of 50, the resistance at ~775 (look back to late February), and the shitty news, and I'd just about want to buy a put or two. Be careful of good news, and as always, watch the financials for hints as to the strength of any rally or pullback.

I shorted this today. It held on stronger than I would have ever expected, but I came out profitable (my highest yield with real money yet). While the S&P500, GS, and APPL all broke down, JPM held on until the end of the day. Look at the resistance formed by the previous gap down around 25. I used that as an entry point.

GS had the perfect opening. Gap up, easy short. Unfortunately I was in class, but one days like today (short term overbought) a gap up is definitely suspicious, especially if there wasn't any news to justify such a blip. I could see this continue downward tomorrow.

I don't really know what to say about GDX. Looks like it's having trouble getting above its 50-day MA; but its stochastic is not in overbought territory. I'd be extremely careful, but I'm still looking for a pullback.

I didn't jump on this ride, but some lucky bastards did! =D As long as the market continues down, I like this. But my disposition wouldn't allow me to hold this overnight. I'm just too scared. It really looks like a good deal though.

I like trading AAPL. I always get an image of unsophisticated (trading wise) fanboys/girls who do not know the difference between an MA and a Stochastic. This could be completely incorrect (I wouldn't doubt that most of the trading is done by institutions through bots), but AAPL still has beautiful range. I tend to keep my eye on it for a good entry.

Take care.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

A Few Charts

Check out Trader Mike for several good charts as well.


Friday, March 13, 2009

Velocity, Acceleration

It's really hard to show the "speed" of stock movements without recording trading in action. I'm guessing that's why most sites don't talk about the speed of a movement very much. For those without trading software (it's a necessity for serious trading), you will have an even harder time getting a feel for the speed of whatever stock, future, whatever you're following. Yes, I used to constantly refresh the charts at Zecco and Sogo Trading when I had a small account size. It helps, but the lack of streaming updates detracts from your ability to feel things in action. And, it limits your ability to quickly enter an order.

Scott of Fear and Greed Trader used to talk about getting a feel for the markets--learning to ride the "waves," getting in and out as movements started and finished. I like to imagine that he was talking about what I am feeling during my trading sessions right now.

What do I mean by the words "velocity," "acceleration," and "speed?" I think of it in terms of physics (using calculus, you could probably write some pretty spiffy trading indicators). Velocity and speed are similar. Both basically tell you how fast you're going (velocity gives you direction too: for our purposes, positive or negative). Applied to trading, velocity would probably be something like +/- $.03 per second. Acceleration is how fast the velocity is changing. If the velocity is at a constant +/- $.03 per second then the acceleration will be zero (velocity/speed is unchanged). This is rarely the case in real life. Instead, the velocity may be something like -$.01 per second meaning the velocity is decreasing at one cent per second (i.e. +$.03/sec, then $.02/sec, then $.01/sec...). And, of course, the velocity and acceleration are in a constant state of flux--all of which depends on the entries and exits of many, many traders and the direction the vast majority feel to be profitable.

How does this all fit in with successful trading? Well, I suppose you don't really need to understand things in the form of exact numbers like I wrote out above. The examples are just to give you an idea of what I'm talking about (and quite possibly encourage someone to write an indicator!).

It can all be done without the above. Just look at the chart (it really needs to be streaming) of the security of your choice and watch the candlestick movements. If things are moving pretty fast and begin to slow down, speed is waning and there could be a possibility of a reversal (depending on the location in relation to resistance/support/etc) or consolidation (look for maintained price, uncrossed MA's).

How fast are people bidding up the price? How fast is it falling? If the price is slowing, that means one side is gaining power over the previously dominate side (either through a diminishing faith or a ambush in the opposite direction). The speed at which a stock progresses also tells you how the traders are reacting psychologically. Are they hurriedly picking up shares in fear of losing short profits? Perhaps, they are overreacting to good news, or bad.

Speed is something that feels better to absorb while it happens. A bar could be a dollar high, but did it get there in one quick burst, a violent battle, or over a stable ascent? You can't really tell just by looking at a bar chart. Just because it's a 5 minute chart and the bar is $1 high, doesn't mean its speed was a constant $1/5minutes. There's another whole story between the lines (i.e. candles).

Learn to absorb it.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009


Anyone interested in purchasing a daily (weekly optional, for a lower price) newsletter? Each evening, before 9PM PST you would receive an email containing a PDF file, the newsletter.

In the newsletter:

- I'll discuss what happened in the markets that day and how I interpret the price movement (e.g. was it a short covering rally?, the start of a bear market rally?, a potential short, long).

- I'll focus on various points throughout the day on the S&P500 and occasionally the DOW (I prefer trading the S&P500 eminis and find it to be a better representation of the market). I'll touch on where ideal points of entry are and how I would identify them before price reaches that point (it does you no good to identify good points of entry after you can enter at the identified point).

- I'll also suggest possible scenarios for the following day. Sometimes it is easy to point out the most likely scenario. Sometimes having a few in your mind is necessary to stay on top of the game.

- With each newsletter I'll point out a few stocks that I am currently following. For instance, I followed AAPL for the last two days, successfully trading it a couple times for nice profits. I'll let you know what I am looking for and what ideal entry points are or are not. I'll list some trades I took, and why I took them.

- Furthermore I'll update you on possible news and developments (oversold or overbought conditions, etc) that you should keep in mind and what to expect should more information be released.

Also, I will make a deal that anyone who does not recoup the costs of the newsletter (assuming a reasonable beginning account size) will get a refund. Of course, you have to actually utilize the information in the letters. I'll have to consider exactly how we will quantify this, but I don't aim to rob you of your money. I want you to be successful, as it will reflect well on me.

Furthermore, despite limited time during the day to actually trade the markets (which is why I hope to make a little cash by writing information for others who can trade all day), I have made my friend 6% in overall profits in the last three weeks or so. It's not much, except when you consider the short bursts of time I actually have during market hours to trade (I love making $200 in 20 mins or so =)).

Let me know what you think.

Not sure about prices yet...would require PayPal payment as well.

He Hit the Number, and So Quickly...

I posted a quote from a newsletter two weeks back (link) that I find rather amusing at the moment. Here's a section of it:

"For those looking for a silver lining, at least we are going to have a deeper bottom to bounce off. Applying a classic recession-trough multiple of 12x against a forward EPS estimate of $55 would imply an ultimate low of 666 on the S&P 500, likely by October if our estimate of the timing for the end of the official downturn is accurate."

Other parts of the letter suggest a lower P/E which would definitely disqualify the 666 number as the ultimate low (at least from my understanding). What I find amusing is not that the analyst happened to pick the current low right on the number (I'll forgive the lack of fractional accuracy), but that he suggests we will reach the low by October. We did. We also reached his suggested ultimate low two weeks after it appeared in print.

If the market continues to do crazy things, like today, I wouldn't be surprised to see it collapse lower and, as of today, think it will go lower. I just do not like the action, and do not feel as though it is rallying action. Follow the financial stocks, though. They will lead the way. Any more good news (such as the Citibank news) will cause euphoria, but as soon as they lose steam, they'll come crashing back down.

Something to keep on your bullish radar is Trader-X's recent post on the reinstatement of the uptick rule. Such a change in how the game is played may cause more euphoria than any banking news could possibly hope for. Be careful. That has possibility of rekindling strong bullish sentiment.