Monday, March 16, 2009

A Check Up

I think it is partially luck, a bit of excess caution, growing confidence, psychological development, and some nice charts, but I haven't had a losing trade since I tried to trade the after hours emini market several weeks ago (I wasn't used to the speed and the limited liquidity). All trades since then have been winners with the exception of one break even trade in the futures market. I don't mean to brag, I just want to say that it is possible. Enough of the horn tooting (watch me screw up tomorrow's trades =D)

On to some charts (all continuations of yesterday's postings):

Look at that beautiful shooting star, the turning stochastic, the decent volume, the RSI bouncing off of 50, the resistance at ~775 (look back to late February), and the shitty news, and I'd just about want to buy a put or two. Be careful of good news, and as always, watch the financials for hints as to the strength of any rally or pullback.

I shorted this today. It held on stronger than I would have ever expected, but I came out profitable (my highest yield with real money yet). While the S&P500, GS, and APPL all broke down, JPM held on until the end of the day. Look at the resistance formed by the previous gap down around 25. I used that as an entry point.

GS had the perfect opening. Gap up, easy short. Unfortunately I was in class, but one days like today (short term overbought) a gap up is definitely suspicious, especially if there wasn't any news to justify such a blip. I could see this continue downward tomorrow.

I don't really know what to say about GDX. Looks like it's having trouble getting above its 50-day MA; but its stochastic is not in overbought territory. I'd be extremely careful, but I'm still looking for a pullback.

I didn't jump on this ride, but some lucky bastards did! =D As long as the market continues down, I like this. But my disposition wouldn't allow me to hold this overnight. I'm just too scared. It really looks like a good deal though.

I like trading AAPL. I always get an image of unsophisticated (trading wise) fanboys/girls who do not know the difference between an MA and a Stochastic. This could be completely incorrect (I wouldn't doubt that most of the trading is done by institutions through bots), but AAPL still has beautiful range. I tend to keep my eye on it for a good entry.

Take care.


Mark Perkins said...

what e-mini's you trading? you should check out Don millers blog on ES. That guy's a monster. almost hard to believe. 49 of 50 days green and tons of contracts. I've been wondering if he has some kind of mechanical system and he's really a stats freak to. .Tons of people put research, money into futures trading. Hard to take their chips me thinks.

Mark Perkins said...

what kind of set-ups are you using on the futures? moving averages? breakouts-downs?

seeing people make money in futures has me thinking Im doing way to much work looking at hundreds of stocks when i could be getting the feel of one instrument. I'm just not sure there is enough of an edge for me in futures though..i don't know. I'd rather trade against emotional idiots in the less liquid stocks.

Complacent Panda said...

I trade the S&P500 emini (ES). I've had quite a bit of success trading it throughout the day. I just had a terrible time the first time I tried to trade it afterhours. I've made money since in AH, but it's not my thing. Much too slow and I'll only trade it if I think I can get a sweet price for the following day.

For futures, I use price anticipation based on retracements to areas of support and resistance. I define those areas by either prior areas of support/resistance or through the use of fibonacci lines. I also follow RSI throughout the day, but normally only use it in conjunction with support/resistance. Also, volume is key to figuring out the supply and demand of whatever market you're in.

I like trading stocks much more for the same reason you like trading them: seems like an easier game. But I'm still a little short of the day trading requirement, and I dislike swing trading in this environment, so I do some ES trading in my downtime. Trying to slowly build up the number of contracts I trade.

mark said...

man, I watched the Dow tick today and I think i could have cleaned house on high probability set-ups. That double bottom today was easy to see and the flags are to easy. the tick is so much more fluid and the trends seem real easy. I might try and trade dow contracts bc i think they are way smaller than one ES contract.