Wednesday, March 11, 2009

He Hit the Number, and So Quickly...

I posted a quote from a newsletter two weeks back (link) that I find rather amusing at the moment. Here's a section of it:

"For those looking for a silver lining, at least we are going to have a deeper bottom to bounce off. Applying a classic recession-trough multiple of 12x against a forward EPS estimate of $55 would imply an ultimate low of 666 on the S&P 500, likely by October if our estimate of the timing for the end of the official downturn is accurate."

Other parts of the letter suggest a lower P/E which would definitely disqualify the 666 number as the ultimate low (at least from my understanding). What I find amusing is not that the analyst happened to pick the current low right on the number (I'll forgive the lack of fractional accuracy), but that he suggests we will reach the low by October. We did. We also reached his suggested ultimate low two weeks after it appeared in print.

If the market continues to do crazy things, like today, I wouldn't be surprised to see it collapse lower and, as of today, think it will go lower. I just do not like the action, and do not feel as though it is rallying action. Follow the financial stocks, though. They will lead the way. Any more good news (such as the Citibank news) will cause euphoria, but as soon as they lose steam, they'll come crashing back down.

Something to keep on your bullish radar is Trader-X's recent post on the reinstatement of the uptick rule. Such a change in how the game is played may cause more euphoria than any banking news could possibly hope for. Be careful. That has possibility of rekindling strong bullish sentiment.

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