Wednesday, January 7, 2009

NYSE Bullish Percent Index

At least since '00, there hasn't been such an extreme and direct rise in the $BPNYA. Moving from below 30% to above 30% is considered a bullish signal. Going from above 70% to below 70% is seen as a bearish signal. I don't know exactly how to read the signal at the moment. But from the way I understand it to work, I think there are two good interpretations, that might be useful when combined with other indicators:

1) The market was so oversold that everything is registering bullish signals. Because of this, it is the time to buy, buy, buy.

2) The market is being irrational. This many bullish signals cannot be supported given the current economic environment. The BPNYA index is due for a pullback.

The second is more along my line of thinking. Check out the Chart Addict's newest post. He points out a rising wedge, a bearish signal. Actually, most of the site's I read and follow are currently bearish and, at most, considering a bear market rally before bearishness resumes.

I agree. But I am wondering if the government/media/someone will find a way to present the unemployment numbers on Friday as better than expected and representing a "bottom." In other words, I'm watching my back.

PS: Been doing a lot of digging and twittering. Working up my accounts and actually making some money on twitter (a pittance, but that's to be exptected). I am slowly edging myself away from those time sinks...

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