Monday, September 15, 2008

I am going to a funeral (thus I wear black), because I'm badass like Johnny Cash.

Today was the 14th worst drop since 1950. Because my portfolio is, after the cover of PCH, completely biased towards the long side, its performance got hurt badly today. I am back to a ~7% loss. Definitely a good lesson to take seriously. I am going to go through some of my stocks and decide on some exit points and possible outcomes along with a general market overview.

INTC fell below its July lows, its March lows and is headed towards its January lows, which at 18.05, happen to be the 52-week low. If it closes below its January lows I'll sell the following day given the market looks terrible. It hit 13 or so in 2002 and I would rather not be holding the stock should that occur again. I don't want to have my hands tied for more than a month; then again, Intel does have a solid record of holding within a relatively nice range. The volume has been increasing, I'd like to see it turn around when it hits the 18 range.

RIMM is looking terrible. But that was expected given the historical nature of the day. It broke last week's low by 10 cents or so, but closed lower. The volume was lower than some of the days last week, but it was still up over 20million. I will sell if it continues to fall. I wanted to hold out until just before earnings next week, but now, I'm worried about holding for longer than reasonable. I will wait until tomorrow's close to sell for a loss.

ADSK is holding up relatively well. I would like to see some more volume come in, but this stock is the least of my troubles right now. I would still like to sell this for a 10% gain at some time in the future.

XLF is doing poorly as one would assume. Purchasing this is a good lesson: do not purchase an ETF following the stocks that have been at the center of a bear market, unless you do so at a decent discount. $22 was not a discount.

EGLE did not have an overwhelming surge in volume today. I'm keeping it. There were worse lows last week. I'm not scared yet.

As for the market overview, this post at VIX and More does a good job of showing the misleading belief that a high VIX always correlates with a new low. The VIX is above the July high; however, with the huge sell offs at the very end of the trading session, I doubt this is as low as we go. Perhaps Paulson can pull some strings and get the market to rally. Otherwise, the plunge protection team has its work cut out for it.

Here is the NYSE bullish percentage index. We still want to see this go below 30 at some point. A rebound above 30 signals a good time to purchase stocks.

The percentage of stocks above their 50 day moving average is a good short term indicator of market movement. Looks like we have a way to go before we hit July's lows. Definitely a sign of more bearishness in the days ahead. The 150 day variation is nearing its July lows. It's still a distance from the March and January lows, and it is quite possible that we will return to those locations given the severity of the financial crisis. A better understanding of the implications behind this indicator will be gained tomorrow, albeit, things still look rather bearish, unless the inverted hammer that has formed on the SPY chart were to be heeded. That points towards at least a small reversal. I think it is safe to say we won't see another drop like today's tomorrow. But, I am not going to say it (for fear God will smite me).

In any case, good luck, good trading, good riddance if you listen to me. Adios.

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