Tuesday, September 9, 2008

So here's the plan...

It's in its beginning state (and I haven't followed my plans so far...), I am getting some of it down in writing. It feels like tomorrow will be ridiculously volatile. Hopefully we get some upward movement on the major indexes, but either way, there are several things I would like to follow.

If PCH manages to hold 46.46 or go lower (obviously preferable), then I'd like to put a .5 - 1% trailing stop on it. There was a lot of volume comparable to the average vol (slightly more than double) and the price fell like a rock near the close. I'd like to keep my ~4.4% gain; no real reason to risk it waiting for the price to hit ~44 unless the stock manages to do so tomorrow.

RIMM took another tumble today, albeit with a higher low. I'd like to get out of this stock tomorrow, with the goal of breaking even. RIMM is making some announcements tomorrow. I plan to sell into the hype (should there be any, and there may, given the huge amount of volume over the past few days) or at least place a stop so that should it die, I'll get out. I'm wanting to short this thing again, which means I should probably hold out another day or so.

EGLE is doing shitty. I can't believe I bought it so far away from support. I'm down 10+% in this, which is only ameliorated by the fact that it only takes up < 1/5 of my group of stocks. I'm keeping it, if only for the dividend (~9% at the price I paid). I hope it'll go up, and there was a lot of volume today, but it still appears to be dropping. I'm thinking ~17 is about as low as it goes. At that point both the daily and weekly stoch will be in oversold territory and there's a good chance of a rebound. I can't bite the bullet. And I don't think I have to yet.

I'm keeping XLF as well (it makes up an even smaller portion of my folio than any of the other stocks). It could drop down to the July lows, but it seems unlikely at the moment with FNM/FRE somewhat out of the way. But I'm bracing for it--and I'll definitely buy some more if it goes that low. The market won't go anywhere but down if the financials can't rally. Thus, XLF is probably the safest mistake I'm in right now.

I'm down in INTC as well, but it's no biggie. I'll hold that until ~24 or so, whether it falls to 18 again or not.

I'm up slightly in ADSK. This thing has been strong the last few days. I'm planning on holding it until 37/38.

Now, if I happen to free up some of my capital tomorrow, I'd like to have a few ideas for new purchases. NVDA is nearing its 52 week low again, setting up for a possible W formation (and should the market rally, possibly a huge gap fill...although, that's mostly me dreaming =)). But on the weekly there is a huge amount of volume that pushed the price up to ~13.50 while there is very little volume on the pullback. I'd look for some nice volume on the rise.

SMH or some other semi-conductor company may be good, especially if it opens lower than today's close. That would definitely be bullish, as long as it didn't head too far down.

I'm tempted to buy some ABX. There was huge influx of volume today pushing this stock to gap down this morning. Will the dollar be able to maintain its rally? I'm not really sure. Is the worst over? Maybe once unemployment stats start to drop and home values start to rise. I'd say it's a buy.

I can't believe how tired I'm getting. If I finish my schoolwork before 11, I'll post some more later. If not--good trading.
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